question archive Suppose you have four possible risk scenarios labeled Q, R, S, and T
Suppose you have four possible risk scenarios labeled Q, R, S, and T
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Suppose you have four possible risk scenarios labeled Q, R, S, and T. Your initial semi-quantitative analysis found that Q is more likely than R, R is more likely than S, and S is more likely than T. After a few weeks of waiting, you received a report that claimed that P(S) = 0.2 and P(Q) = 0.5. Is this possible?
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Answer:
here as sum of probability is 1
therefore P(Q)+P(R)+P(S)+P(T) =1
0.5+P(R)+0.2+P(T) =1
P(R)+P(T) =0.3 ...........(1)
also as t Q is more likely than R, R is more likely than S, and S is more likely than T
P(R)>P(S)
which means P(R) >0.2
also as P(S)>P(T)
therefore P(T)<0.2
therefore it is possible that P(R) is between 0.2 and 0.3 while P(T) is between 0 and 0.1 which make above a valid distribution
Hence this is possible
