Taylor Swift and Kanye West are playing a dice rolling game. Kanye has rolled 3 straight sums of 7 and then states he is betting against rolling a 7 on the next roll because it is less likely to occur. He reasons that the probability of getting 4 straight sums of 7 is (1/6)(1/6)(1/6)(1/6) = 1/1296 so 7 is less likely to occur on the 4th roll. At this point Taylor rips the dice from Kanye and states to the people in the crowd that Kanye is an idiot and the probability is still 1/6 of him getting a 7 on the next roll and he should learn statistics. Who is right and why?

Taylor Swift is correct and Kanye is incorrect. We need to understand that each roll of dice is an independent event, which means that the probability of occurrence of rolling 7 on each throw of dice is independent of its occurrence in earlier events. 

Therefore, the occurrence of sums of 7 in the previous 3 rolls will not affect the chance of rolling a sum of 7 on the 4^th roll. This is known as Gambler's fallacy, in which gamblers falsely think the previous occurrence of an event affects the future occurrence of such events. 

Thus, Taylor Swift is correct in asserting that the probability of occurrence of rolling a 7 on the 4th roll is equal to 1/6 and is independent of having rolled sums of 7 on the three previous rolls. 

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Step-by-step explanation

Taylor Swift is correct and Kanye is incorrect