1)Describe how "odds" ties into the ratio method for calculating probabilities from expert opinion

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1)Describe how "odds" ties into the ratio method for calculating

probabilities from expert opinion. Based on what you now know about odds, describe in words how to calculate the probability of two MECE events from their odds using the ratio method.

2)Suppose you have four possible risk scenarios labeled Q, R, S, and T. Your initial semi-quantitative analysis found that Q is more likely than R, R is more likely than S, and S is more likely than T. After a few weeks of waiting, you received a report that claimed that P(S) = 0.2 and P(Q) = 0.5. Is this possible?


3)Suppose you have three possible risk scenarios X, Y, and Z. Your initial assessment found that X is twice as likely as Z, and Y is three times as likely as Z. What is P(X), P(Y), and P(Z)?

4)Explain where the expanded expression for Pr(o,e) comes from.

5)Which of the fundamental questions of risk management (consider all twelve) would benefit from using pairwise ranking? Why?

6)How many pairwise comparisons must you make for a case with 15 statistically independent scenarios?

7)Suppose you have three events - X, Y, and Z - where X and Y are mutually exclusive, and together X, Y, and Z are collectively exhaustive. Z is not mutually exclusive with respect to either X or Y. Is this possible? If so, draw a Venn Diagram illustrating how it might be possible.


8)What is the equation for calculating the number of pairwise comparisons in a pairwise ranking matrix? (b) Why is knowing this equation important

9)Suppose you are given a list of 36 statistically independent causes of harm to a project. Also assume two possible outcomes - project success and project failure. Based on this information, how many scenarios must be considered?

10)I am working with a colleague and he tells you that the sum of the probabilities for two events in the same sample space is 1.3. How is this possible?