question archive The probability Miss
The probability Miss
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The probability Miss. Lula will run into the other room for no reason is 73 percent.
When Miss Lula's sees her brush there is an 83 percent chance she will run to it and
a 17 percent chance she will run into the other room (cats are complicated creatures).
Miss Luna only sees her brush being taken out 68% of the time
Given that Miss Lula has run into the other room what is the probability she saw her brush?
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The answer is 0.349
Let R stands for cat runs into a room
M= Miss Cat sees her toy
Probability (R|M') = 0.73
P(R|M) = 0.83
P(M') = 0.68
P(M|R') = P(R|M)*P(M)/[P(R|M)*P(M)+P(R|M')*P(M')]
= 0.83*0.32/[0.83*0.32+0.73*0.68]
= 0.2656/[0.2656+0.4964]
= 0.349
Hence the correct answer is 0.349
