question archive In this assignment, the purpose is to learn building and evaluating of a forecast model
In this assignment, the purpose is to learn building and evaluating of a forecast model
Subject:StatisticsPrice: Bought3
In this assignment, the purpose is to learn building and evaluating of a forecast model.
Using the dataset you provided in the Second Assignment (Exploring Time Series and Time Patterns),
- Select an appropriate Naive model for forecasting and justify your choice. (i.e. explain your model and its components in regard of your data characteristics).
- Apply your Naive Model in excel or in Minitab on your data and calculate forecast errors (residuals).
- Analyse the residuals using appropriate plots. (i.e. create time series plot, graphical summary, box plot, etc. to check the statistical assumptions for them, and analyse its correlogram). What do the residual autocorrelations suggest for these data? Explain.
- Calculate MAD, MSE, RMSE, MAPE and MPE for your model and discuss the model's accuracy.
- Forecast the value of your variable for the next four time periods into future using naive model.
Prepare a professional looking report for this homework. Pay extra attention to include your comments on each analysis requested in the questions.
Upload also your minitab and/or excel files here.
