For this particular assignment, the data of different types of wine sales in the 20th century is to be analysed

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For this particular assignment, the data of different types of wine sales in the 20th century is to be analysed. Both of these data are from the same company but of different wines. As an analyst in the ABC Estate Wines, you are tasked to analyse and forecast Wine Sales in the 20th century.

 

Please do perform the following questions on each of these two data sets separately.

1. Read the data as an appropriate Time Series data and plot the data.
2. Perform appropriate Exploratory Data Analysis to understand the data and also perform decomposition.
3. Split the data into training and test. The test data should start in 1991.
4. Build various exponential smoothing models on the training data and evaluate the model using RMSE on the test data.
5. Other models such as regression,naïve forecast models, simple average models etc. should also be built on the training data and check the performance on the test data using RMSE.
6. Check for the stationarity of the data on which the model is being built on using appropriate statistical tests and also mention the hypothesis for the statistical test. If the data is found to be non-stationary, take appropriate steps to make it stationary. Check the new data for stationarity and comment.
7. Note: Stationarity should be checked at alpha = 0.05.
8. Build an automated version of the ARIMA/SARIMA model in which the parameters are selected using the lowest Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) on the training data and evaluate this model on the test data using RMSE.
9. Build ARIMA/SARIMA models based on the cut-off points of ACF and PACF on the training data and evaluate this model on the test data using RMSE.
10. Build a table with all the models built along with their corresponding parameters and the respective RMSE values on the test data.
11. Based on the model-building exercise, build the most optimum model(s) on the complete data and predict 12 months into the future with appropriate confidence intervals/bands.
12. Comment on the model thus built and report your findings and suggest the measures that the company should be taking for future sales.

Dataset :

 

 

YearMonth Rose 1980-01 112 1980-02 118 1980-03 129 1980-04 99 1980-05 116 1980-06 168 1980-07 118 1980-08 129 1980-09 205 1980-10 147 1980-11 150 1980-12 267 1981-01 126 1981-02 129 1981-03 124 1981-04 97 1981-05 102 1981-06 127 1981-07 222 1981-08 214 1981-09 118 1981-10 141 1981-11 154 1981-12 226 1982-01 89 1982-02 77 1982-03 82 1982-04 97 1982-05 127 1982-06 121 1982-07 117 1982-08 117 1982-09 106 1982-10 112 1982-11 134 1982-12 169 1983-01 75 1983-02 108 1983-03 115 1983-04 85 1983-05 101 1983-06 108 1983-07 109 1983-08 124 1983-09 105 1983-10 95 1983-11 135 1983-12 164 1984-01 88 1984-02 85 1984-03 112 1984-04 87 1984-05 91 1984-06 87 1984-07 87 1984-08 142 1984-09 95 1984-10 108 1984-11 139 1984-12 159 1985-01 61 1985-02 82 1985-03 124 1985-04 93 1985-05 108 1985-06 75 1985-07 87 1985-08 103 1985-09 90 1985-10 108 1985-11 123 1985-12 129 1986-01 57 1986-02 65 1986-03 67 1986-04 71 1986-05 76 1986-06 67 1986-07 110 1986-08 118 1986-09 99 1986-10 85 1986-11 107 1986-12 141 1987-01 58 1987-02 65 1987-03 70 1987-04 86 1987-05 93 1987-06 74 1987-07 87 1987-08 73 1987-09 101 1987-10 100 1987-11 96 1987-12 157 1988-01 63 1988-02 115 1988-03 70 1988-04 66 1988-05 67 1988-06 83 1988-07 79 1988-08 77 1988-09 102 1988-10 116 1988-11 100 1988-12 135 1989-01 71 1989-02 60 1989-03 89 1989-04 74 1989-05 73 1989-06 91 1989-07 86 1989-08 74 1989-09 87 1989-10 87 1989-11 109 1989-12 137 1990-01 43 1990-02 69 1990-03 73 1990-04 77 1990-05 69 1990-06 76 1990-07 78 1990-08 70 1990-09 83 1990-10 65 1990-11 110 1990-12 132 1991-01 54 1991-02 55 1991-03 66 1991-04 65 1991-05 60 1991-06 65 1991-07 96 1991-08 55 1991-09 71 1991-10 63 1991-11 74 1991-12 106 1992-01 34 1992-02 47 1992-03 56 1992-04 53 1992-05 53 1992-06 55 1992-07 67 1992-08 52 1992-09 46 1992-10 51 1992-11 58 1992-12 91 1993-01 33 1993-02 40 1993-03 46 1993-04 45 1993-05 41 1993-06 55 1993-07 57 1993-08 54 1993-09 46 1993-10 52 1993-11 48 1993-12 77 1994-01 30 1994-02 35 1994-03 42 1994-04 48 1994-05 44 1994-06 45 1994-07 1994-08 1994-09 46 1994-10 51 1994-11 63 1994-12 84 1995-01 30 1995-02 39 1995-03 45 1995-04 52 1995-05 28 1995-06 40 1995-07 62