question archive Suppose you work for a news agency, which is conducting an exit poll for the MCD (Municipal Corporation of Delhi) elections
Suppose you work for a news agency, which is conducting an exit poll for the MCD (Municipal Corporation of Delhi) elections
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Suppose you work for a news agency, which is conducting an exit poll for the MCD (Municipal Corporation of Delhi) elections. You have been tasked with predicting the winner for ward 75N (Ashok Vihar).
You ask 100 randomly selected voters from this ward to name the party they had voted for. Of the 100 voters, 58 voted for AAP and 42 voted for BJP. So, you define X as the proportion of people that voted for AAP. Then, the frequency distribution for X would be as shown in the table given below.
|
X |
Frequency |
|
1 |
58 |
|
0 |
42 |
Comprehension
Can you be 90% confident that AAP will win the majority vote in ward 75N?
Note: Mean calculated in previous question is:- (0.465, 0.695)
- Yes
- No
- Depends on the distribution of the population
- Insufficient data
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Establishing hypotheses:
Null : AAP will not win the majority vote in ward 75N
Alternate: AAP will win the majority vote in ward 75N
we use the one proportion z score formula
z= (p-po)/sqrt(po*(1-po)/n)
p = x/n = 58/100 = 0.58
po =0.5 (majority)
z = (0.58-0.5)/sqrt (0.5*0.5/100)
z = 1.6
p(x>0.58) = 0.0548
Since p value is less than 0.1 alpha level, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that there is sufficient evidence to claim that AAP will win the majority vote in ward 75N.
Answer: Yes
