question archive Problem 2 Kumar is a young man
Problem 2 Kumar is a young man
Subject:EconomicsPrice: Bought3
Problem 2 Kumar is a young man. Unfortunately, he was diagnosed with cancer a year ago. However, the physician was unable to determine which type of cancer Kumar had. The physician only knew that Kumar either had type A cancer with probability 20% or type B cancer with probability 80 percent. Type A cancer is deadly: 75% of patients with type A cancer die within a year. Type B is less deadly: only 30 % of patients with type B cancer die (D) within a year. (a) Draw a tree representing the four possible outcomes (Use (D) to represent the event of death, (not D) to represent the event of being alive). Harold is Kumar's best friend and roommate. He promises Kumar to take care of Kumar's cat once Kumar dies. Suppose now Kumar lives for more than a year. (He is still alive!) (b) If Harold knows Bayes rule, what is the probability that he thinks Kumar has type A can- cer? 1 (c) If Harold commits base-rate neglect, what is the probability that he thinks Kumar has type A cancer?
