ESSP 200 - Sustainability Science Assignment #5 Socio-economic Impacts on Environmental Conditions Due Wednesday, May 5th at 11:59 P

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ESSP 200 - Sustainability Science Assignment #5 Socio-economic Impacts on Environmental Conditions Due Wednesday, May 5th at 11:59 P.M. In class, we discussed about the IPAT equation used for estimating environmental impact. By conducting this assignment, you will gain experience in using quantitative methods to calculate a projection of atmospheric CO2 levels from which you are asked to compare with other data in order to draw inferences on potential future conditions. You are also asked to analyze graphical data and draw a reasoned conclusion based on the information presented. These objectives fall within the Essential Studies goals of Math, Science, and Technology. The information below on current world population, the estimated world human affluence represented in the number of cars per person, and the amount of CO2 output per car per year, is to be used calculate and answer the following questions (IPAT equation can be found in Lecture 33). Current: Population: 7.4 billion Affluence: 0.1 cars/person Technology: 5.4 tons CO2 per car per year 1) Calculate if the global population rises to 10 billion by 2050 and Affluence is likely to more than quadruple as China, India, Brazil, and many other middle, low-income countries become wealthier, how much CO2 emission would rise if we hold technology constant? How many more times greater is this increase as compared to the current CO2 emissions? Given that current atmospheric CO2 levels are just over 400 parts per million (ppm) what would this increase mean for the future atmospheric CO2 levels? How does this future level compare with the graph of the geologic record of CO2 levels over the last 800,000 years determined from the Antarctic ice cores (discussed during Lecture 17 – Environmental Quality (Part 2), slide 13)? Finally, what can you infer about potential future temperature changes from these results? 2) Given the population and affluence level in 2050, calculate if we want to keep CO2 emissions constant, how much technology would have to advance to reduce emission levels? 3) Discuss the different focuses for developing and developed countries to design environmental policies based on the IPAT equation. 4) Discuss the hypothetical relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in developing countries and the possible reasons that could explain the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Sustainability Science Sustainable Development IPAT Equation • Ehrlich and Holdron (1971) • Argued that three main factors impact the environment since WWII • Environmental Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology • Main drivers of environmental problems • Population growth • Growth in consumption per person • Damage per unit of consumption inflicted by available technology CO2 and the IPAT Equation • Automobile CO2 emissions: • Population: 6 billion • Affluence: 0.1 cars/person • Technology: 5.4 tons CO2 per car per year • CO2 emissions / year = (6 billion) * (0.1 cars / person) * (5.4 tons CO2 / car / year) = 3.45 billion tons CO2 / year Assignment #5 • IPAT Equation • Assignment found on Blackboard • Answer questions based on the IPAT equation • Some of the questions require you to look back at old lecture notes • Due Friday, May 5th at 11:59 P.M. Poverty and the Environment • Many environmental problems are problems of poverty • Poor people cannot afford to conserve resources • Population growth slows with increased income • Environmental Kuznets Curve • Relationship between Pollution and Economic Growth Why do we see this? • Political demand for pollution control • Rising Education • Shift in industrial composition In Reality… Natural Resource Curse • Low and middle-income countries • Abundant natural resources • Strongly resource dependent economically • However, low GDP, low GDP per capita, and low GDP growth rate • Why is development so poor? • Less labor and capital in manufacturing • Expensive input prices • Less innovation and unwise reinvestment • Lack of diversity in economy • External factors • Colonial history, undemocratic government, etc.