question archive DISCUSSION - Which stockbroker is skilled? A stockbroker predicts whether a stock will go up or down by tossing a coin and so has a 50% chance of making a correct prediction
DISCUSSION - Which stockbroker is skilled? A stockbroker predicts whether a stock will go up or down by tossing a coin and so has a 50% chance of making a correct prediction
Subject:MathPrice: Bought3
DISCUSSION - Which stockbroker is skilled?
A stockbroker predicts whether a stock will go up or down by tossing a coin and so has a 50% chance of making a correct prediction. Another broker, who is skilled, has a 60% chance of making a correct prediction. You don't know which broker is which, so you watch their predictions for three days. Each broker gets all three predictions correct. What are the relevant probabilities? How do you decide who is the skilled broker?
