While entering the lobby of "We'll Take All of Your Money, If You Want to Give it To Us" casino, (WTAOYMIYWTGITU for short), a really drunk person exiting the casino gives you a hot tip

Subject:MathPrice:2.87 Bought8

Share With

While entering the lobby of "We'll Take All of Your Money, If You Want to Give it To Us" casino, (WTAOYMIYWTGITU for short), a really drunk person exiting the casino gives you a hot tip. Drunky tells you that of the two quarter-slot machines, there's one that pays out at 0.2 and the other at 0.05. Unfortunately, Drunky doesn't remember which one it is; all Drunky remembers is one looks newer and the other looks older. You scope the place and find the two slot machines of interest. You flip a coin to decide which one to play first. You put a quarter in the new one and pull the lever, and you lose. Given that you have lost, what should be your updated belief that the new machine is the machine that pays out at 0.2? 

In other words find the probability that the new machine is the one that pays out at 0.2, given that you earned no jackpot (i.e., you lost).

0.46

0.50

0.25

0.37